What is the RiskWeather program?
The following article is a summary of the research data to design the 10 weather icons for the Risk Weather program.
Q 1 : What is the Risk Weather Program?
No one knows exactly when the stock market will crash, for how long, when it will bounce back and how long it will hold up. For this reason, investment advice from Peter Lynch, a well-known fund manager who has run mutual funds at Fidelity with long-term high returns, makes sense. "If you prepare for or predict a stock market crash, you lose far more money than you lose in the stock market crash itself." This story may be advice that exacerbates the anxiety and fear of investors who are anxious about not being able to predict the future. But in reality, it is also very wise advice.
As such, the stock market is subjectively influenced by various circumstances, including economic and political variables, so it is very difficult to predict the stock market, and other experts argue that it is completely unnecessary. However, theoretically, as a method of predicting such an uncertain stock market, it can be summarized in two ways: fundamental analysis method and a technical analysis method. The fundamental analysis method is to look at the past and present situation of a company and analyze the current stock value and future stock price. Technical analysis method refers to a method of predicting the future stock price by looking at the historical stock price and trading volume
Among these analysis methods, the risk weather program was created to predict the risk of the stock market based on a mathematical model.
From 2007 to 2008, as the financial crisis that started with individual financial institutions spread rapidly throughout the global financial market, and as world famous financial institutions went bankrupt in a chain of bankruptcies, countries around the world were struggling to stabilize their financial systems and manage systemic risks. I realized how important it is.
However, although the need to manage these risks is increasing, the people who deal with this data are experts in a very limited field, and there are very few cases in which it is presented visually in an easy-to-understand manner to the general public. Therefore, based on scientific and mathematical theories, the purpose of the Risk Weather program is to visualize and show the level of risk occurring in the stock market so that the general public can easily understand it.
The Risk Weather program, developed to allow the public to easily understand and easily view complex and professional stock market crisis data.
Girin instruments.Inc is a fin-tech company that provides solutions based on powerful mathematical probability models. The models abstract a mathematical structure from chaotic financial data.
The financial solutions on the models efficiently analyze risk in the highly volatile financial market and help customers’ decision-making in portfolio management.
The Riskweather program is one of five solutions developed by the Girin instruments.Inc.
Q2. Who are RiskWeather's main users?
The stock market is unpredictable and subject to fluctuations, so the general public has no choice but to rely on expert opinions or analysis. However, these data are not easy to understand, so it is difficult to personally judge and analyze them. Therefore, the Risk Weather program shows the crisis in the form of a weather forecast icon for easy understanding by the general public. It is subdivided into 10 categories and shown based on a mathematical model.
When we were assigned to design this icon, the focus was on an icon that was friendly to the general public. Realistic and minimalistic icons may take data analysis seriously or misunderstand it as a tool for direct investment. Therefore, it is designed in an animation format as a friendly reference as much as possible.
Q3. How do you view risk weather?
If you see a year icon like the one below on a stock investment you are interested in, it's a good sign.
However, if you see the icon of a volcanic eruption on the left, you need to analyze the cause more carefully.
Below is the index and risk level suggested by each of the 10 icons.
Q4. Where can I see Risk Weather?
The Risk Weather program was developed with the simplest interface and structure so that it can be easily incorporated into portal sites or mobile sites.
The stock markets offered to date are: Bitcoin, Binance Coin, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Digital Cash, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, S&P 500 Index, Russell 2000 Index, Nasdaq Composite, Hang Send index, Nikkei 225, FTSE 100 Index, CAC 40 Index, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google(Alphabet), JPMorgan Chase&Co, Tesla.
And the 7-day forecast data is visualized and shown as shown below.
The RiskWeather program is currently available as a free trial on the Girin Instruments website (https://www.girininst.com) main screen.
Watch the stock market like a weather forecast!
The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has changed policies and systems not only in the health field but also in all fields around the world. In particular, as the volatility of the stock market increases due to this phenomenon, the participation of individual investors in the stock market is increasing.
Predicting stock market indices is an important issue for investment. This is because even a small improvement in prediction accuracy can lead to better trading decisions compared to other investors.
'Value investing' is the principle of buying blue-chip stocks at low prices and long-term diversification. Benjamin Graham is a pioneer of 'value investing', which is said to be the cornerstone of investment, and the founder of securities analysis. He first established the theory of systematic securities analysis in the 1930s, creating a boom in “value investing” on Wall Street.
Here's what he said about the stock market. “The stock market has incurable emotional problems, and daily schizophrenic and nonsensical behavior is practiced. The volatility of the stock market does not have reasonable expectations, but fluctuates from time to time in response to these emotional changes.”
As Benjamin Graham puts it, the stock market is like unpredictable and volatile weather.
So, is it possible to predict such volatile weather? The result of such an attempt is the weather forecast that we often see and apply to our daily lives.
The weather forecast we are currently watching is based on science and technology that collects information such as weather, barometric pressure, wind direction, wind speed, temperature, and humidity of various places to predict and deliver the conditions of the atmosphere and the ground. However, in the past, when such scientific technology was lacking, the weather of tomorrow was predicted from the actions of animals due to movement or temperature change felt by their skin.
If you read the articles about the stock market forecast of caution, you can often see opinions about investing with a long-term perspective rather than predicting, or looking at the market with a positive mind, since the stock market is an unpredictable area. But personally, I feel like these articles are written to believe in your skin or intuition because the forecasts are sloppy.
Of course, I'm a painter and I'm not an expert on finance. I was talking simply by analogy with the weather forecast. The reason I became interested in forecasting was when I was in charge of designing a program that informs the stock market risk in the form of weather.
This program, like the weather forecast, is also a reference, but you should not blindly trust it. Just as we do not deny the existence of the weather forecast just because the weather forecast is wrong, it is meant to visualize the state of risk in the stock market like the weather, and you should not absolutely trust the weather and invest directly. It is raining, so you have to be careful enough to prepare an umbrella.
In this sense, I designed 10 weather icons based on the directions given by financial experts. Below is the final version. Conditions are like the weather, clear, sunny but a little cloudy, sunny but a lot of clouds, cloudy, a little rain, a lot of rain, rain and thunder, rain and thunder and wind, tornado, and volcanic eruption. The sun icon is in the best condition, i.e. low risk, and the volcanic eruption is the most dangerous.
Below is the website of a company that develops software and provides consulting for stock market risk.
A recent update has added a week's data of forecasts just below Risk Weather to show the weather.
The major items in the stock market shown are as follows.
Showing stock market conditions like a weather forecast : RiskWeather Program Icon Description.
Risk Weather Program, a program that predicts and informs the risk level in the stock market like a weather forecast, is a financial software developed by Girin Instruments.INC, which was founded in November last year.
In order to predict these types of financial phenomena, which are subjective and emotional, like an unpredictable and capricious mischief in the stock market, we have categorized them into 10 categories. The stock market has many unpredictable variables, such as rain today and rain tomorrow, just like the weather forecast.
However, just as a weather forecast is not necessary because the weather forecast is inaccurate and it is difficult to predict completely, a system that can predict the risk of the stock market with scientific evidence and a mathematical model must be developed, which will be the cornerstone for making a more accurate forecasting model in the future. We can believe it will. It is also meaningful to respond to the upcoming crisis by using this mathematical model as a reference.
I read and studied related articles to design 10 icons for the Risk Weather program. And based on the contents and the expert's order, the above icons were created. What each icon means is as follows.
Below is the case of Tesla, a company we know all too well.
In the case of Bitcoin, it is as follows.
Announce about update the Girin Instruments.Inc site.
The Girin Instruments homepage has been renewed. In reflection of users' opinions, the main screen shows the core programs first and unnecessary images have been removed.
The intro screen of the service arranges the core icons of the risk weather program, which is the main product.
The content of About is not different from the existing content.
The demo site has been reorganized. We have compiled five types of core software of this company.
Updated the RiskWeather emoticons with 10 styles for Grin instruments.
Today, we have updated the risk weather emoticon that informs the weather in the financial market that we designed before. The previously created oil painting-like emoticons did not meet the purpose of the program, so we selected a few additional emoticons from the existing emoticons.
I uploaded some of the existing emoticons below to Pixar Bay site, a free image sharing site. As soon as the image is uploaded, the response is good and I am satisfied.
Below are the newly updated Riskweather program emoticons. Risk Weather is a program that predicts the level of risk in the stock market and delivers it in the form of weather in an easy-to-understand manner to the general public. This program is completed with real stock market data based on a mathematical model. However, caution should be exercised when using it for direct investment.
This time, there are 10 types of risk weather icons, and 5 more of the existing 5 have been added. It has been subdivided into phases: Sun, Small clouds in the Sun, big Clouds in the Sun, Clouds Only, Clouds and wind, Heavy Rain, Rain and Thunder, Rain and Thunder with Wind, Tornado, Volcanic. And the sun is the clearest time in the stock market, and a volcanic means, in a word, the stock market is very dangerous.
The newly designed 10 risk weather program emoticons can be viewed by visiting the site below.
Myungja Anna Koh